Do Religious Cultures Predict Fertility Desire? A Country-Level Analysis

The study examines whether religion influences ideal fertility at the country level. While global fertility rates have declined due to educational and economic development, technological change, and improved health care, ideal fertility-reflecting individual preferences-remains an important indicator of societal fertility norms. In particular, religious traditions and beliefs, which shape gender roles and family formation, may play important role in shaping these ideals. Using cross-sectional aggregate-level data on 123 countries from the Gallup World Poll, Pew Research Center, Economic Intelligence Units, Legatum Institute Foundation and World Inequality Database, this study analyzes the relationship between national religious traditions, levels of religiosity, and ideal fertility. The findings show that religiosity and religious composition remain associated with ideal number of children at the national level regardless of economic factors. Additionally, Muslim-majority countries have higher ideal fertility compared to Christian-majority countries. We also find that religiosity is positively associated with ideal fertility for both men and women, with largely parallel slopes, indicating similar responsiveness to religious context across genders. Overall, findings highlight the importance of considering religious cultural contexts in fertility-related research, policymaking, and family planning programs.