Summer Melt and the Postsecondary Pathway

Abstract Summer melt describes the phenomenon of graduates who appear ready for college opting not to enroll after high school, often because of challenges arising during the summer. Using the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, this study situates summer melt within the broader college-choice process by comparing summer melters with students who follow through on their intentions, those who never intend to enroll, and those who enroll without prior intent. Socioeconomic differences in summer melt are closely tied to earlier disparities in progressing toward college intent. Summer melters also share some academic and behavioral characteristics with students who do not intend to enroll and are less likely than college-intending enrollees to maintain consistently high educational expectations during high school. They also exhibit differences in their model-predicted probabilities of enrollment between the 10th and 12th grades, with larger differences more common among lower-SES students. These results highlight the value of viewing summer melt as one point among several at which students reconsider their postsecondary plans, as well as the need for conceptual models that incorporate ongoing, rather than discrete, decision-making in the transition to college.