ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LQ45 COMPANY STOCK PRICE INDEX ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE FOR THE 2021-2025 PERIOD

The Indonesian capital market is vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility, particularly for leading stocks in the LQ45 Index. Global uncertainties such as inflation spikes, interest rate adjustments, and fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate impact investment decisions and company value. This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables, namely inflation, Bank Indonesia interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate, partially and simultaneously on the movement of the LQ45 stock price index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2021–2025. An associative quantitative approach was used with secondary data. The sample was drawn using a purposive sampling method, resulting in 25 companies, and panel data were analyzed using a Random Effects Model (REM). The test results show that partially, the variables of inflation, BI interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate have a negative and significant influence on the LQ45 index. Simultaneously, the three variables together have a significant influence, contributing 88.81%. This finding confirms that high inflation, rising interest rates, and rupiah depreciation are negative sentiments in the capital market. The implications of this finding strengthen Arbitrage Pricing Theory and recommend the need for sector rotation strategies for investors and the implementation of hedging mitigation for corporate issuers.