A climatic-regional classification framework for exotic species plantation forestry in Ethiopia

Abstract Plantation forestry underpins rural livelihoods, wood and energy security and landscape restoration in Ethiopia, yet the country lacks a forestry-specific climatic classification to support species deployment and plantation planning. This study developed the first national climatic classification framework for exotic plantation forestry in Ethiopia by integrating temperature and a temperature-adjusted moisture index and quantifying regional temperature–elevation relationships. Mean annual temperature from WorldClim was classified into six forestry-relevant classes, while regional models quantified lapse-rate variability and corresponding elevation equivalents. Moisture availability was represented by the ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual temperature (MAP/MAT), providing a simple, spatially consistent measure of precipitation relative to thermal conditions rather than a mechanistic water-balance index. The framework was used to classify plantation environments, quantify climatic potential for plantation forestry and assess the climatic suitability of selected Eucalyptus , Corymbia and Acacia species using published thresholds. Temperature–elevation relationships varied substantially among regions, demonstrating the limitations of a single national lapse rate. Approximately 31% of Ethiopia was classified as Optimal, 19% as Suboptimal, dry and 50% as Unsuitable, dry, with 97.1% of existing plantation area occurring within the Optimal class. Species differed markedly in the extent and climatic breadth of their literature-derived suitability envelopes. As the assessment represents climatic suitability rather than realised plantation productivity, systematic productivity-based validation is required. The framework provides a practical foundation for climate-informed species deployment, trial stratification and plantation planning in Ethiopia.