Balancing urbanization, climate change, and biodiversity conservation with nature-based solutions: A case study of Hong Kong

Urban areas face challenges in jointly addressing the global climate change and nature loss crises amidst the pursuit of socioeconomic development agendas. These trade-offs prompt the need to explore solutions for sustainable environmental and societal futures that balance diverse priorities. Nature-based solutions (NbS) are one such approach that can provide synergistic benefits for climate, nature, and society. This study employs geospatial approaches to mapping and identifying such benefits and trade-offs, serving as a foundation to guide further assessment and planning. Using Hong Kong as a case study, we model the carbon storage, road-based disturbance, and climate risk trade-offs under five land use change scenarios for 2030. The results demonstrate the stark losses in climate mitigation benefits when urban areas are expanded at extreme scales, but only moderate losses under current planned development schemes that may be mitigated by the implementation of NbS. Several key areas in Hong Kong are identified where these benefits are maximised, namely Mai Po, Chek Lap Kok, and Sai Kung. NbS opportunities can be further explored in those areas to enhance natural carbon stores, reshape built infrastructure for nature connectivity, mitigate coastal flood risks, among other benefits. The results provides an evidence foundation for implementing NbS to bridge climate and nature policy agendas with competing urbanisation priorities in Hong Kong and other urban areas globally.