Comparative Feasibility Analysis of Mass Transit Options for Mangaluru-Udupi-Manipal Corridor

Objectives: Evaluate the techno-economic viability of a proposed ₹20,000 crore Heavy Metro system vis-a-vis alternate transit modalities (e.g., the inland waterway-based Water Metro) for the linear Mangaluru-Udupi-Manipal (MUM) urban corridor. Method: Using a mixed-methods methodology, demographic projections were conducted for the 2026 and 2031 horizon years against established benchmarks of the National Commission on Population. Existing railway infrastructure capacity has been audited through the lens of Scott’s Formula for mixed traffic single line sections. A comparative Capital Expenditure Framework has been developed to assess Heavy Metro against MetroLite, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Water Metro alternatives. Findings: Spatial demographic analysis reveals that the projected aggregate population of ~1.02 million by 2026 satisfies only 51% of the statutory population threshold requirement for a Heavy Metro system, which, according to current trajectories, will not be reached until 2059. An operational assessment of the single-track Konkan Railway section indicates that it currently accommodates 72 daily trains despite a theoretical safe capacity of 33.6 trains, i.e., a 214% utilisation rate. If the proposed suburban rail paths are included, such figures become implausible at 363%. In terms of financial investment, deployment of a closed system BRT along NH66 demands ~14.4% of the Heavy Metro capital outlay. However, the recently initiated Mangaluru Water Metro Project (MWMP) achieves very specific node connectivity objectives at just 3.1% of the heavy rail capital outlay benchmark. Novelty: This research presents an integrated techno-economical evaluation matrix specifically adapted for linear coastal conurbations of the Global South, as one of the first studies of its kind. This study systematically derives corridor-specific overcapacity metrics and juxtaposes them against recent literature on transit-oriented development, multi-system integration and emissions, to challenge the universality of deploying capital-intensive Heavy Metro systems as panaceas in mid-sized Indian cities. Keywords: Linear Urban Corridor, Suburban Rail, Metro Viability, BRT, Water Metro