System Dynamics-Based Assessment of Climate Resilience among Milkfish Aquaculture Households in Sibulue District, Bone Regency

Climate change increasingly threatens aquaculture livelihoods through extreme weather events, seasonal variability, and production uncertainty, potentially undermining household resilience and enterprise sustainability. This study aimed to assess aquaculture household resilience to climate change and evaluate alternative adaptation policies using a System Dynamics approach in Sibulue District, Bone Regency, Indonesia. A mixed-methods approach was employed involving 30 aquaculture households. Quantitative data were analyzed descriptively to construct resilience indicators, while qualitative findings were used to identify key factors and relationships influencing household resilience. These findings were integrated into a System Dynamics simulation model developed using Vensim to evaluate alternative policy scenarios. The overall household resilience index was 53.87, indicating a moderately resilient condition. The resilience perception index was 54.38, while the dependency resilience index reached 60.25 and was classified as resilient. The climate change adaptation and recovery adaptation indices were 47.08 and 53.75, respectively, both indicating moderately resilient conditions. Simulation results indicated that alternative policy scenarios generated different projected trajectories of household resilience and aquaculture enterprise sustainability under changing climatic conditions. These findings highlight the importance of integrated adaptation strategies combining financial support, government intervention, and technical adaptation measures to strengthen aquaculture household resilience and sustainability. However, the simulated outcomes represent model-based projections rather than empirically observed policy effects.