Early Posting Behaviour and Later Deep Engagement in Incel Communities on Reddit: An Exploratory Observational Study

This deposit contains the compiled six-page manuscript (main.pdf), manuscript LaTeX sources and supporting code. The PDF includes all four tables, two aggregate figures, declarations and references. The standalone main.tex contains the reference URL wrapping correction. The original source and code ZIP archives are retained unchanged. See PUBLICATION-NOTES.txt for file instructions and the correction history. This exploratory observational study examines early posting metadata and later sustained participation in selected Reddit communities. The corrected analysis excludes archived scores, removal status and text. It uses temporal user-level splits and reports class balance, AUROC, AUPRC, F1 and calibration. The snapshot is partial and earlier test inspection informed design corrections. Independent replication is required. Community activity is not a measure of ideology or radicalization, and the models are not suitable for individual risk assessment. Raju Sah is the sole author, affiliated as Independent researcher (ORCID 0009-0006-0412-6139). No formal ethics review was sought. No external funding or competing interests are declared. OpenAI Codex and Anthropic Claude assisted with the project; the author retains responsibility. The manuscript PDF, sources and aggregate figures are licensed CC BY 4.0. Supporting code is separately licensed MIT inside its archive. This deposit is not peer-reviewed. No Reddit archives, user-level tables, hashes, text, embeddings, individual predictions, logs or secrets are provided. Numerical reproduction requires access to the same locally held partial snapshot, which is not distributed.