LAB #4625 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, n=27) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 7 confirmations would have filtered out all four REJECTED/open trades (USDCHF, EURJPY, AUDUSD long, and the AUDUSD short that closed as a loss — wait, that one had 7m but likely fewer confirmations; regardless, the three open/rejected longs and the EURJPY short would be excluded). That removes 3 open positions and 1 loss, leaving the 4 closed wins and 2 closed losses (GBPUSD long, USDJPY short) — a live win rate of 4/6 = 66.7% vs. the current 4/10 = 40% including rejects. PnL delta is positive but small in absolute terms since the rejected trades never triggered SL/TP; the main benefit is avoiding capital lockup and emotional noise from unconfirmed entries. The backtest's +15.9pp is directionally consistent but overstated here because the live window has only 6 qualifying trades. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23610248
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4625 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4625 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, n=27) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 7 confirmations would have filtered out all four REJECTED/open trades (USDCHF, EURJPY, AUDUSD long, and the AUDUSD short that closed as a loss — wait, that one had 7m but likely fewer confirmations; regardless, the three open/rejected longs and the EURJPY short would be excluded). That removes 3 open positions and 1 loss, leaving the 4 closed wins and 2 closed losses (GBPUSD long, USDJPY short) — a live win rate of 4/6 = 66.7% vs. the current 4/10 = 40% including rejects. PnL delta is positive but small in absolute terms since the rejected trades never triggered SL/TP; the main benefit is avoiding capital lockup and emotional noise from unconfirmed entries. The backtest's +15.9pp is directionally consistent but overstated here because the live window has only 6 qualifying trades. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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LAB #4625 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 7 — improves win rate from 32.2% to 48.1% (+15.9pp, — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS