Baseline OCT-features predicting retinal atrophy in optic disc swelling

Abstract Purpose To assess optical coherence tomography (OCT) biomarkers at initial presentation of optic disc swelling (ODS) in predicting retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) and ganglion cell layer (GCL) atrophy using volumetric macular and optic nerve head (ONH) analysis. Methods In this retrospective study, patients with first-episode ODS and 6- and 12-month follow-up were included. Spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) volumetric scans of the macula and ONH were analysed using an AI-based platform (Discovery). Macular RNFL, ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCL + IPL), and ONH RNFL volumes were quantified across ETDRS grid fields. Longitudinal change was modelled with linear mixed-effects models; predictors of 12-month outcomes were identified by multiple linear regression. Results Fifty-two eyes from 32 patients (mean age 39 ± 13.8 years) were analysed across papilloedema ( n = 24), uveitic disc oedema ( n = 22), ischaemic ( n = 4), and infiltrative ( n = 2) aetiologies. At baseline, uveitic disc oedema eyes showed significantly higher macular RNFL and GCL + IPL volumes than papilloedema, while ONH RNFL was similarly elevated. All OCT parameters declined significantly over 12months, with greater macular loss in uveitic disc oedema cases ( p < 0.001). GCL + IPL reduction was more pronounced in the uveitic disc oedema group (− 296 ± 241 nL vs. − 110 ± 160 nL) and persisted beyond 6 months only in this group ( p = 0.012). Baseline GCL + IPL volume strongly predicted 12-month GCL + IPL volume loss (β = 0.91, p < 0.001), and worse baseline visual acuity independently predicted more severe GCL + IPL volume loss (β=-317, p = 0.002). ONH RNFL did not predict visual outcomes. Conclusion ODS is associated with measurable structural change over 12 months. Baseline macular OCT biomarkers, particularly GCL + IPL, predicted 12-month outcomes largely independent of aetiology, and macular OCT may aid risk stratification alongside aetiological diagnosis.