Demographic Ageing and the Reshaping of Global Processed Food Trade

ABSTRACT This study examines how demographic ageing shapes global processed food trade by estimating trade‐income elasticities (IEs) that incorporate the influence of the aged population share, within a structural gravity model. The findings indicate that ageing amplifies IEs for processed food imports in both developed and developing economies while dampening them for domestic processed foods in developing economies. Import IEs in developed economies remain above unity, while those in developing economies are projected to rise from about 0.6 to nearly 1.3 in coming decades. Country‐ and product‐level estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity, with pronounced increases in import IEs for major economies and for processed meat, fish, fruit and vegetables, cocoa and sugar confectionery, and drinks. The contrasting responses of imported and domestically supplied processed foods may partly reflect differences in product composition. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for demographic ageing and product‐level heterogeneity when assessing future processed food trade.