Beliefs About Public Opinion and the Perceived Legitimacy of Policy Decisions

Abstract Democratic legitimacy is typically thought to depend on whether political decisions reflect public opinion, or majority preferences. Do citizens share this standard? And what if citizens are wrong about public opinion? We study how beliefs about public support for controversial policy proposals are associated with the perceived legitimacy of adopting them, and whether accurate polling information changes these judgments. In a representative survey experiment in Germany, respondents reported their own position on four such proposals, estimated public support, and rated the legitimacy of adopting each one. For a random subset of proposals, respondents received accurate polling information showing that the proposal lacked majority support. We find that perceived public support predicts legitimacy judgments even after accounting for respondents’ own policy preferences. Yet these perceptions are often inaccurate and shaped by respondents’ own views. Corrective polling information modestly lowers perceived legitimacy, especially among those who initially overestimated public support. The findings suggest that misperceptions of public opinion can distort, but accurate information can also partly correct, citizens’ assessments of democratic legitimacy.