Merit, gender, and programme allocation among LUANAR-selected candidates under Malawi's harmonised university selection system, 2023–2026

Equitable programme allocation in higher education requires balancing academic performance, candidates' preferences, institutional capacity and equity objectives. This study examined factors associated with programme placement and redirection among candidates selected to the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) through Malawi's harmonised public university selection system between 2023 and 2026. Administrative records for 6975 candidates were analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, analysis of variance, binary logistic regression and six threshold-specific binary logistic regression models, with ordinal logistic regression providing a supplementary overall summary. Weaker MSCE performance was associated with higher adjusted odds of redirection (AOR = 1.300, 95% CI: 1.264–1.337). Despite weaker average MSCE performance, female candidates experienced more favourable allocation outcomes, with substantially lower adjusted odds of redirection than males (AOR = 0.148, 95% CI: 0.128–0.172). This gender allocation advantage was observed within a selection system incorporating affirmative-action eligibility provisions; however, the data do not establish whether these provisions produced the observed difference. Overall, 40.2% of candidates were redirected outside all six ranked programme choices. First-choice preference-to-declared-capacity ratios were below 50% for most LUANAR programmes, while preference pressure was concentrated in a relatively small number of programmes, indicating substantial preference-placement mismatch. Secondary-school category showed limited independent association with programme allocation after adjustment, while allocation outcomes varied across cohorts and placement thresholds. The findings highlight the importance of a transparent and periodically reviewed allocation framework that balances academic performance, gender equity, candidates' ranked programme preferences and planned programme capacity.