Analyzing Nitrogen Fertilizer Markets in the Context of Agricultural Sustainability: Informed Target Market Selection with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

Nitrogen fertilization is essential for balancing yield stability and supporting agricultural intensification, particularly in nations where cropland expansion is constrained. The pivotal role of nitrogen fertilizers in sustainable agriculture also renders them a strategically traded commodity. Consequently, trade-oriented analyses of fertilizer markets represent a vital dimension of sustainability research, as they influence input accessibility, production stability, and global food security. This study aims to develop an integrated and structured multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework to identify emerging markets for nitrogen fertilizer exporters, accounting for the multi-dimensional impacts of global change. The analysis focuses on AMIS countries, which constitute the core of global agricultural production and trade. The decision model incorporates a diverse set of agricultural, demographic, and trade-related criteria, including import value, trade balance, agricultural nitrogen use, fertilizer use per unit of cropland, cropland availability, food vulnerability, and urbanization rate. Criterion weights are established using the CRITIC method—accounting for both contrast intensity and inter-criteria correlations—while alternative markets are ranked via the Fuzzy TOPSIS method. The results indicate that India, the United States, and China achieved the highest overall scores, with closeness coefficients of 0.5945, 0.5197, and 0.5098, respectively. The most influential criteria are food vulnerability (0.2035), urbanization (0.1865), and cropland area (0.1407). The findings identify high-potential markets characterized by structurally sustained fertilizer demand, driven by land constraints, demographic pressures, and the necessity for agricultural intensification.