When Cities Encroach: Urbanization Pressure on Basin Area Landscape in Eastern China

Abstract The spatial configuration of land cover plays a crucial role in shaping the impacts of urban growth and guiding land-use management. However, quantifying these influences remains challenging. This study introduces a new framework to assess the potential influence of urban development on natural and seminatural landscapes, using the urban impact weighted interspersion and juxtaposition index (UIW-IJI), the bivariate Anselin local Moran’s index analysis, and the landscape expansion index. Applying the China Land Cover Data Set at a 300-m grid from 2004 to 2019, we examine the spatial relationship between UIW-IJI and urban sprawl in major river basins in Eastern China. Results reveal three distinct patterns of urban influence comprising stable zones, declining peri-urban zones, and urban intensification zones, with the Taihu Lake Basin urban agglomeration particularly illustrating these dynamics. The analysis identifies a geographically uneven distribution of urban pressure, with persistence in central and eastern regions and emerging influences in the southwest. Furthermore, the transition from expansion-oriented to infill-dominated urbanization (>70%) has not necessarily reduced pressure on natural lands. Instead, it has shifted the impact from dispersed to locally concentrated, intensifying ecological pressure in northeastern cities. These findings provide insights into targeted land-use planning interventions to enhance both development efficiency and ecological conservation, demonstrating the importance of incorporating UIW-IJI into regional ecosystem management and sustainable urban development.