Weather shocks and fertility: evidence from drought exposure in rural India

Abstract The total fertility rate in rural India has fallen by half in recent decades. This paper seeks to understand the role of negative weather shocks in decreasing fertility rates in rural India. Using birth histories of a cohort of rural women and a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the average probability of birth to a woman shows a significant decline of about 1.4 percentage points in the ten years following a drought, suggesting adjustment in fertility rates by households following a weather-induced economic shock. I also find that this decline is concentrated at higher birth parities. Using an event-study framework, I further show that while part of the decline in births occurs immediately and persists in the first few years after exposure to droughts, there is also a delayed effect, with the probability of birth most visibly declining six years after the initial shock. I also find suggestive evidence that women in more drought-prone regions are more likely to report a desire for fewer children, highlighting the role of repeated environmental shocks on desired family size.