Poland: Political developments and data in 2025: A return to gridlock

Abstract The defining feature of Polish politics in 2025 was the consolidation of institutional gridlock. The narrow victory of radical-right challenger Karol Nawrocki over the ruling coalition’s Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential run-off ensured that the cohabitation paralysing the Tusk government since December 2023 would persist through to at least the next parliamentary election. A substantial July cabinet restructuring – which cut the Council of Ministers from 27 to 22 and sharply reduced the share of women among ministers – reflected an effort to reassert political authority rather than expand the government’s policy reach, as initiatives on abortion liberalisation and civil partnerships once again stalled. Dissensus within the ruling coalition was manifest in the dissolution of the Third Way electoral alliance, Szymon Hołownia’s announcement that he would step down as Polska 2050 leader, and the disproportionate effects of the reshuffle on the junior partners. A parallel fragmentation on the right, where Confederation emerged as a serious electoral rival to PiS, reshaped the opposition camp.