Effect of Ecuador’s Bono 1000 Días Cash Transfer Program on Child Linear Growth: A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Approach

Background: Childhood stunting remains a critical public-health challenge in Ecuador, where the national prevalence among children under five reaches 19.3%, rising to 22.1% in rural areas. To address this, the Ecuadorian government launched Bono 1000 días (BMD) in June 2022 as part of the Estrategia Nacional Ecuador Crece sin Desnutrición Crónica Infantil (ENECSDI). By March 2025, the programme had reached 141,527 active beneficiaries and disbursed USD 127.8 million in transfers. Methods: We evaluate the causal impact of BMD on the height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) of children under two years of age. The programme combines an unconditional monthly transfer with conditional milestone payments tied to prenatal check-ups, birth registration, and well-child visits. Drawing on administrative records through June 2024 and a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) design, we exploit the discrete jump in programme eligibility at the poverty-score threshold (RS =29.774) to identify causal effects. Results: Parametric estimates indicate a statistically significant increase of 0.18–0.21 standard deviations in HAZ within ±5 RS points of the eligibility threshold. Non-parametric estimates at MSE-optimal bandwidths of approximately ±8–10 RS points yield effects of 0.14–0.19 standard deviations, also statistically significant. Results are robust across covariate specifications including child sex, age, ethnicity, and maternal characteristics. Conclusions: Targeted cash transfers during the first 1000 days of life generate significant improvements in children’s linear growth. The programme’s combined design—unconditional income support plus health-service conditionalities—offers a replicable model for low- and middle-income countries seeking cost-effective strategies to reduce stunting.