An integrated resource–demand–engineering framework for prioritizing bedrock geothermal exploration targets in the central-southern Hebei Plain, North China

Bedrock geothermal reservoirs in the central-southern Hebei Plain are important targets for geothermal development. However, spatial differences in resource conditions, development demand, and engineering accessibility make it difficult to determine exploration priority. This study evaluated the exploration priority of 38 previously identified bedrock geothermal potential areas with reservoir depths shallower than 4000 m. Seven indicators, including policy need, supply-demand matching, burial depth, reservoir temperature, resource modulus, drilling control, and heat-transmission distance, were organized under three criteria: development demand, resource conditions, and engineering feasibility. Indicator weights were determined using the analytic hierarchy process, and GIS-based spatial analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were applied to 4041 grid cells measuring 3 km × 3 km. Comprehensive scores ranged from 1.10 to 7.22 and showed marked spatial variation. Priority exploration zones occurred as discontinuous clusters across several predefined geothermal potential areas, with major concentrations in the Baoding–Xiong’an and Cangzhou–Hengshui sectors. Development demand has the largest criterion-layer weight (47.4%), followed by resource conditions (37.6%) and engineering feasibility (14.9%). In the sensitivity analysis, varying each indicator weight by ±20% yielded Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of 0.9926–0.9999 and category agreement rates of 88.6%–98.8%, indicating that the overall prioritization pattern is relatively stable. The results provide a basis for planning phased bedrock geothermal exploration in the central-southern Hebei Plain.