A data-driven analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in India indicates a significant increase over the next decade

The greenhouse effect is widely recognised as an important contributor to global warming and climate change, arising from the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study examines India’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1994 to 2024 using data reported by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India. Time-series forecasting was performed using ARIMA, Holt’s exponential smoothing, logistic fitting, and polynomial fitting models. The relationship between emissions and economic growth was also explored through the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. The forecasting results generally indicate a continuing upward trend in GHG emissions over the projection period (2035). The EKC analysis suggests an association between GDP and emissions, although the nature of this relationship warrants careful interpretation. Overall, the findings suggest that GHG emissions in India may continue to rise under current trends, underscoring the potential importance of mitigation and policy interventions. This study assesses historical emission patterns, future projections, and their possible relationship to economic growth.