Land‐Use Thresholds and Spatial Regulation Oriented Toward Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Balance: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province

ABSTRACT Imbalances between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand constrain ecological governance and sustainable development. While spatial patterns of these imbalances have been widely studied, less attention has been paid to the land‐use thresholds and regulatory mechanisms needed to maintain ES balance. Using Jiangxi Province as a case study, we developed a threshold‐based spatial regulation framework integrating ESs supply–demand ratio (SDR) analysis, key land‐use type identification, and management zoning. We quantified the spatiotemporal supply and demand of four ESs—carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil conservation (SC)—from 2003 to 2023. By combining boosted regression tree and segmented regression, we identified key land‐use types affecting ESs balance and their proportional thresholds, and used segmented regression breakpoints for differentiated spatial zoning. The results showed that although the supply of ESs generally exceeded demand, the imbalance intensified over time, particularly for WY and HQ, accompanied by significant spatial heterogeneity. Built‐up land, cropland, and forest land are the dominant land use types affecting the balance of ESs. Built‐up land negatively affected CS and HQ, cropland positively affected WY, HQ, and SC, forest land supported CS and WY, and water area promoted SC. Although land use in Jiangxi remained within the overall balance threshold, some areas approached critical points, with WY showing the smallest balanced area (75.39%). Based on current land‐use structure and ESs thresholds, three ESs management zones and 27 integrated zones were delineated, and differentiated land‐use regulation strategies were proposed, providing a scientific basis for ESs‐oriented spatial governance.