Price elasticity of cannabis demand in legal adult‐use cannabis markets: Evidence from retail scanner data in the United States

Abstract Background and aims Cannabis for adult use is legally sold in nearly half of states in the United States, yet little is known about how cannabis demand responds to price changes or whether excise taxes can effectively influence cannabis demand in legal markets. This study aimed to (1) assess trends in market share and prices of cannabis flower products and (2) estimate the price elasticity of demand for cannabis flower products in adult‐use markets in the United States. Design Secondary data analysis of retail scanner data from point‐of‐sale systems in a nonrandom sample of cannabis retailers, projected to represent statewide sales from 2020 to 2023. Descriptive statistics assessed trends in product market share and prices. Two‐stage least squares models with state and time fixed effects estimated the price elasticity of demand for flower products, using state‐level cannabis excise taxes as an instrumental variable for retail prices. Setting Ten states with legal adult‐use cannabis markets in the United States. Cases A total of 864 616 product‐state‐quarter level observations on cannabis flower sales, including dried flower and pre‐roll products. Measurements The primary outcome was quantity demanded in grams. The primary explanatory variable was tax‐exclusive retail price per gram. The instrumental variable was state‐level standardized excise tax per gram. Results Cannabis flower products remained the dominant category in adult‐use markets, accounting for over 50% of total sales. The median price per gram declined from $8.23 to $6.12 over the 4‐year study period. Using the instrumental variable approach, the price elasticity of demand for cannabis flower products was estimated at −2.29 (95% confidence interval = −2.61 to −1.89), indicating that a 1% decrease in price was associated with a 2.29% increase in quantity demanded. Summary In legal adult‐use cannabis markets in the United States, cannabis flower product prices declined by 26% from 2020 to 2023. Demand was highly price elastic, as a 1% decrease in price was associated with more than a 2% increase in quantity sold in retail markets. Continued price declines may lead to increased cannabis demand, but this effect could be potentially counterbalanced by well‐designed excise tax policies.