Permafrost augmented simulation and forecast using hybrid modeling through spectral neural networks

Purpose Global warming is impacting several crucial Earth systems, including the permafrost. This study aims to investigate the possibility of performing fast and reliable simulation and forecasting of permafrost behavior, addressing a critical gap in the existing literature related to high computation times and energy costs of the simulations. Design/methodology/approach A numerical cryohydrogeological study on water and energy transfer in a forested, continuous permafrost site has been conducted using parallel high-performance computing to simulate the permafrost dynamics. The numerical results reasonably replicate the measured soil temperature profiles and the dynamics of infiltrated waters. This work uses a spectral network to achieve a fast, reliable and stable surrogate model for the simulations to forecast over long periods of time. The surrogate is also enhanced by assimilating experimental data through the development of a hybrid modeling framework. Findings The proposed approach improves the physical simulation while maintaining the stability of the dynamic model over long periods of time. The results reveal that the proposed hybrid modeling remains stable in integration and forecasting. The final hybrid solution demonstrates a significant improvement in simulation accuracy when tested against a test set of measurements. Predictions of the permafrost behavior in the coming decade are later made based on the coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) climate change scenarios. Originality/value This research offers a novel perspective on permafrost modeling that extends the current understanding of its behavior under different climate change scenarios. It shows a higher-than-expected temperature increase of the permafrost. Moreover, the stable forecasting of climate change effects is demonstrated.