Spatiotemporal analysis of global future photovoltaic potential and its driving mechanisms

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) potential under future climate scenarios is critical for global decarbonization and energy transition planning. This study employed the Global Solar Energy Estimation model to calculate PV potential and carbon mitigation across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using calibrated data of 2015–2100 from the CMIP6 data based on the Bayesian Model Averaging method. Results showed that the global annual mean PV capacity factor (CF) (power generation) was 0.1622 (2010 TWh), 0.1597 (1993 TWh), and 0.1543 (1961 TWh) under low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) carbon emission scenarios, respectively. Correspondingly, 33%, 12%, and 8% of global land area exhibited significant increases in CFs. Experiments of climate impacts on PV potential revealed that a reduction in PV CF (power generation) of 0.0008 (1 TWh) per decade under high carbon emission scenario, driven by a decline in surface solar radiation from increased aerosols and cloud cover, along with panel efficiency losses from rising air temperature. Investigation of physical factors on PV potential indicated that the advanced crystalline silicon materials and two-axis panel tracking systems demonstrated substantial potential in enhancing PV power generation and carbon mitigation. Moreover, the driving mechanisms of the climate variables on PV potential was also investigated based on the Structural Equation Modeling method. Our findings quantify the potential of PV technology in generation and decarbonization, assisting in policy development in energy transitions to address climate change.