Spatio‐temporal dynamics of ringed seal density and habitat use in the Arctic's Last Ice Area

The Arctic is warming at approximately four times the global rate, driving widespread decline in sea ice extent, thickness, and seasonal duration. The ecological consequences of these rapid changes remain poorly understood within the Last Ice Area, a region that includes northern Ellesmere Island and the northwest of Greenland, projected to retain summer sea ice the longest and to serve as a refuge for ice‐associated species. Our understanding of distributional shifts for ice‐associated species often comes from research at the southern extent of their ranges; however, knowledge of these shifts in the northern extents of their ranges remains limited. We conducted aerial surveys between 2018 and 2024 in both spring and summer to quantify spatio‐temporal variation in the density of the most abundant ice‐associated mesopredator in the Arctic, ringed seals Pusa hispida , and to model their habitat use relative to several habitat characteristics. Ringed seal densities varied spatially and temporally across the survey area, with the highest densities occurring in Archer Fiord in summer. Densities across the study area were still relatively low compared to more southern areas of the Arctic. Ringed seal abundance in summer was higher in deeper waters and closer to marine‐terminating glaciers, reflecting the species' ecological requirements such as prey availability during the intensive summer foraging period. Ringed seal abundance in both spring and summer was not influenced by sea ice concentration, likely because this variable remains relatively constant year‐round in the Last Ice Area. The density estimates and the habitat use model presented in this study offer novel insights into seal–habitat seasonal relationships in the Last Ice Area, providing a valuable index for monitoring potential future changes in ringed seal habitat use in this ecologically important region of the Arctic and across the broader extent of their range.