Regulatory certainty and administrative fragmentation in renewable energy infrastructure: Evidence from the polish agricultural biogas sector

This article examines the relationship between administrative fragmentation and regulatory certainty in renewable energy infrastructure, using the Polish agricultural biogas sector as a case study. The study combines doctrinal legal analysis, qualitative comparison of selected European governance arrangements and a nationwide survey of 97 agricultural biogas producers, representing 61.4% of all registered producers in Poland. The findings indicate that regulatory certainty is associated not only with the stability of legal rules but also with administrative efficiency, institutional coordination and the predictability of regulatory implementation. Respondents reported lengthy permitting procedures, predominantly low assessments of regulatory clarity and low-to-moderate assessments of the stability of renewable energy support mechanisms. Regulatory instability was also among the most frequently identified economic risks, while change-in-law clauses were reported in a substantial proportion of contractual arrangements. To integrate these findings, the article develops and empirically applies the concept of hybrid regulatory certainty, which links legal stability, administrative efficiency, institutional coherence and legitimate expectations within a single analytical framework. The Polish case illustrates how formally established regulatory arrangements may coexist with limited perceived predictability where administrative responsibilities are fragmented and implementation involves multiple authorities. The study contributes to regulatory governance and renewable energy policy research by showing the analytical value of examining regulatory certainty as a multidimensional governance phenomenon and highlights institutional coordination and consistent administrative implementation as important components of a predictable investment environment.