Between Staying and Leaving: Socioeconomic and Demographic Predictors of Migration Intentions in Rural Serbia

Understanding migration intentions in rural areas is increasingly important in the context of demographic decline and rural depopulation. While considerable attention has been devoted to the determinants of rural out-migration, less is known about the factors underlying individuals’ intentions to stay in rural areas. This study examines the socioeconomic and demographic predictors of migration intentions among rural residents in Serbia. The analysis draws on survey data from 954 respondents across 111 rural settlements in seven municipalities in the Šumadija and Western Serbia Region. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to examine the factors associated with three migration intention categories: stay, indecisive, and leave. The regression analysis was based on 609 complete cases. The findings show that staying is the predominant stated migration intention among respondents. In the multivariable analysis, age, engagement in agricultural activities, perceived living standards, and municipality of residence were significantly associated with migration intentions overall. Older respondents and those engaged in agriculture had higher odds of intending to stay rather than leave, whereas higher perceived living standards were associated with being undecided rather than intending to leave. Migration intentions also varied significantly across municipalities after accounting for the individual characteristics included in the model, indicating the relevance of territorial context. These findings contribute to the literature on rural mobility and immobility by demonstrating that intentions to stay are shaped by a combination of socioeconomic and demographic factors. The results suggest that policies aimed at improving rural living conditions and supporting sustainable agricultural activities may contribute to strengthening rural population stability.