Beyond the thermometer: Responsible interpretation of vegetation-climate modelling requires an ecosystem-service perspective

Changes in vegetation structure, composition, and distribution are among the most consequential drivers of land–atmosphere interactions and associated ecosystem services. Vegetation–climate modelling frameworks often rely on temperature-based indicators, most commonly near-surface temperature, and in some cases land surface temperature, as primary outcome metrics. This commentary argues that many policy interpretations extend beyond the scope of typical vegetation–climate modelling frameworks by treating temperature responses as comprehensive indicators of climate effectiveness or broader ecosystem-service outcomes, thereby risking maladaptive policy decisions. We emphasize that these concerns do not undermine the scientific value of these modelling studies. Rather, they highlight the pressing need to interpret model outputs as conditional diagnostics that should be considered alongside broader ecosystem-service tradeoffs, ecological feedbacks, and human impacts.