Quantitative Analysis of Concurrent Effects of Water Vapor and Air Temperature on Drought: A Case Study on the 1978 Extreme Summer Drought in Anhui Province, China

As an important grain-producing region of China, Anhui Province suffered its most severe drought in 70 years in 1978, particularly in summer. During the drought, the west–northward shifted western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) induced local high temperatures, while a weakened monsoon suppressed south-to-north moisture transport into the region. These two factors jointly triggered the extreme drought. This study aims to quantitatively examine the respective contributions of water vapor and air temperature anomalies to the drought. Based on the tight relationship between precipitation and relative humidity as well as the definition expression of relative humidity, two measures are constructed to separate moisture and temperature effects, with three supplementary indicators for assessing their relative importance. The results show that water vapor anomalies dominate this drought, contributing approximately 73% of the total effect, while temperature anomalies account for 27%. At the condensation levels, the contribution of less-than-normal water vapor to the drought is roughly 4.6 times that of warmer-than-normal temperature. Distinguishing the dominance of moisture and air temperature in the drought and quantifying their respective contribution fractions provides physical support for drought classification and prediction.