Predicting trail-making test performance using 7-Tesla structural cerebral MRI

Abstract Psychopharmaceutical therapy has seen a lack of improvement in efficacy, highlighting the need for a more individualized treatment approach that optimally leverages pharmaceutical effects. To achieve this, it is necessary to identify factors that can predict psychological attributes and treatment outcomes. We hypothesize that brain morphology may serve as a predictor of performance in psychological tests. A 7-Tesla-MRI system was used to measure 74 transdiagnostic patients and 41 healthy controls. Values for grey matter volume (GMV), cortical thickness and gyrification based on the Schaefer 100 Atlas for parcellation were determined. Using this morphological data, performance in a Trail-Making Test (TMT) - A and B was predicted with the help of a deep learning model. A SHAP analysis was conducted to identify the key variables important for the model. The accuracy in predicting TMT performance was very good at 0.795. The most decisive feature influencing predictions was gyrification. Areas indicating inter-group differences were focused in the frontal cortex, as well as in temporal and parietal regions. Morphological characteristics can predict test performance with high accuracy. These results support the implementation of a transdiagnostic approach in clinical practice to better address the underlying pathophysiology. Symptom prediction based on neuroimaging data appears to be an achievable goal.