Between geopolitics and domestic factors: foreign policy change in Morocco and Tunisia during the Syrian crisis (2011–2023)

The Syrian conflict, erupted in 2011, affected Syria’s relations with Arab states, including Morocco and Tunisia. Both countries initially adopted a critical stance, condemning the Syrian government for widespread violations of fundamental human rights, subsequently severing diplomatic relations. As the conflict escalated Morocco and Tunisia gradually reassessed their positions. Drawing on Jakob Gustavsson’s theory of foreign policy change, the study explains how and why this transformation occurred between 2011 and Syria’s readmission to the League of Arab States in 2023. The analytical framework incorporates Steven Heydemann’s characterisation of Arab re-engagement as pragmatic rather than value-driven, Kercher and Schiff’s multidimensional distinction between conditional and comprehensive normalization, and Kercher and Hittman’s middle-power analysis. Methodologically, it employs a structured, focused comparison of the two cases based on qualitative analysis of official statements, academic, and media sources. Processed through chronological process tracing and coded against three explanatory categories: international conditions, domestic political developments, and decision-makers’ perceptions. The findings show that systemic pressures, the consolidation of the Assad government with Russian and Iranian support and the Saudi-led Arab consensus on normalisation set the direction of change.The article demonstrates the interaction of external pressures and domestic developments in shaping Arab foreign policy during protracted regional conflicts.