LAB #4172 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.6% to 39.0% (+6.4pp, n=779 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 32.6% to 39.0% (+6.4pp, n=779) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter to the current live window would have excluded all 10 listed trades, as none carry timestamps within a typical NY_OPEN session (roughly 14:30–21:00 UTC). The two winners (GBPUSD 1.34898, NZDUSD 0.58252) and the three losses would all be removed, leaving zero trades. Net PnL delta is therefore zero from this specific sample, but the filter would have eliminated the two wins that occurred outside NY_OPEN — meaning the backtested +6.4pp edge is not visible here and may not generalize to these exact instruments/strategies. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter could raise win rate if the backtest's 779-trade sample is representative and not overfit to a specific regime (e.g., high-volatility NY morning). However, the live trades above show losses inside and outside NY_OPE Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-10-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23446838
- Primary Topic
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Type
- preprint