Migration, remittances, and drivers of household food security in a post-conflict urban Tigray, Ethiopia

Migration is widely recognized as a livelihood strategy in Africa and other less-developed regions. However, there is limited empirical evidence on the links between migration, remittances, and household food security, particularly in post-conflict urban settings. This study employed a cross-sectional mixed-methods convergent parallel design. Quantitative data were collected through surveys of 420 randomly selected households (139 migrant-sending and 281 non-migrant-sending) across five urban towns in Ethiopia’s Tigray region: Edaga Hamusee, Atsebi, Mekelle (Hawlity sub-city), Abi Adi, and Degua Tembein. Qualitative data were gathered from 12 focus groups and 15 key informant interviews. A Food Security Index was constructed using Principal Component Analysis. Quantitative analyses included chi-square, Gamma, ANOVA, generalized ordered logistic regression, and propensity score matching, while qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate widespread food insecurity among post-conflict urban households in Tigray, with over 70% experiencing severe or moderate insecurity, characterized by limited dietary diversity and reduced consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Migration status demonstrated only a weak association with food security, whereas remittances receipt emerged as a key protective factor by supporting household consumption, preventing asset liquidation, enhancing resilience to shocks, and improving access to credit. In the post-conflict context, remittances have shifted from investment to survival, reflecting declining household resilience. The Generalized Ordered Logit Model revealed that migration was not a significant predictor of severe or moderate food insecurity ( p = 0.417). Family size, education, asset ownership, income, and formal employment positively influenced food security, while reduced aid, inflation, increased service costs, and political instability significantly undermined food security. The study recommends coordinated interventions that address both immediate needs and underlying structural causes rather than relying solely on international migration. Priority actions include strengthening household assets through education, housing, and income generation; restoring financial services and stabilizing markets; maintaining humanitarian assistance for vulnerable groups; targeting disadvantaged populations such as persons with disabilities, unemployed youth, lactating women, and children; and controlling inflation to improve urban food access.