LAB #4169 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT — improves win rate from 32.6% to 53.1% (+20.5pp, n=271) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT — improves win rate from 32.6% to 53.1% (+20.5pp, n=271) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a USDCHF SHORT-only filter would have excluded zero of the 10 listed trades — none are USDCHF. Therefore, no PnL or win-rate change would occur in this specific window; the filter is orthogonal to current exposure. The claimed +20.5pp improvement is untestable against this sample because it contains no USDCHF trades at all. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a USDCHF SHORT filter could reduce trade frequency and concentrate risk on a single pair/direction. If the backtest's 53.1% win rate is driven by a specific regime (e.g., USD strength or CHF weakness), it may decay as macro conditions shift. Risk: overfitting to a small n=271 sample, especially if the filter interacts with existing entry models (rizzy5m, wkjudas) that already have variable performance. Expect lower overall trade count, potentia Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com