Two Decades of Change in Mexico–U.S. Migration, 2005–2025

Abstract Mexican migration to the United States has undergone dramatic changes since reaching its peak two decades ago when it was considered the largest sustained population flow in the world. Previous research has documented a sharp decline in Mexico–U.S. migration in the late 2000s, but less is known about later trends. Studies also suggest that return migration to Mexico may have risen following an increase in removals from the United States. This study provides an update on the bidirectional flow of migrants between the two countries disaggregated by demographic subgroups using data from a quarterly employment survey in Mexico. Following the dramatic decline in the late 2000s, Mexican migration to the United States remained low for over a decade with only a modest increase in recent years. The rate of return migration to Mexico also declined sharply until the mid‐2010s and has remained low. Because return migration declined for longer than emigration, net emigration from Mexico has increased since 2010. The observed changes in Mexican migration in recent years are inconsistent with explanations that attribute the earlier decline to lower demand for immigrant labor in the United States and to the direct compositional effects of population aging in Mexico.