Data-Driven Simulation and Statistical Assessment of Renewable Energy for Reducing Carbon Emissions and Fossil Fuel Dependence

The rapidly growing use of renewable energy has been a primary strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. This study provides a data-driven simulation and statistical analysis of the impact of renewable energy on global electricity decarbonisation by using international energy data from 2000 to 2024. Methods the study includes descriptive trend analysis, national comparison, Pearson correlation analysis, fixed-effects panel regression and simulation of counterfactual emissions. We evaluated the share of renewables in electricity, the share of fossil fuels in electricity, the shares of renewables and fossil fuels in primary energy, carbon intensity of electricity (mtCO e/GWh), total electric generation (GWh) and emissions from power sector. Results show that global renewable power increased from 18.72% in 2000 to 31.94% up to 2024 and fossil electricity decreased from 64.66% to 59.09%. Electricity carbon intensity decreased from 527.26 to 471.08 gCO₂e/kWh representing a 10.66% decrease over the study period (Figure 7). We found a high negative correlation between Renewable power and reliance on fossil fuels (−0.940), also with carbon intensity (−0.869). In fixed-effects regression, we found that a one percentage-point increase in the share of electricity generated from renewables was associated with a mean 6.11 gCO₂e/kWh reduction in carbon intensity of electricity and a mean 0.93-percentage-point decrease in fossil electricity share among neighbour states. This counterfactual calculation estimated that power-sector emissions in 2024 were approximately 1,737.79 MtCO₂e lower than they would have been had electricity carbon intensity never improved relative to its 2000 level. According to the results, renewable energy growth is central not only to decarbonizing the power sector, but also in replacing fossil fuels. Yet the continuous growth in power use implies that extra speedy deployment of renewable energy, storage resources, infrastructure improvements and gains in whole lot efficiencies is required to acquire long-term reductions in annual global emissions.