LAB #4177 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.3% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.3% (+5.7pp, n=830) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-6-confirmations filter would have excluded the two `wkjudas` entries (GBPUSD LONG and USDJPY SHORT) that both closed as losses, and likely the `wkjudas` NZDUSD SHORT still open. Among the `rizzy5m`/`rizzy7m` trades, the filter would have removed the early-loss XAUUSD SHORT (entry 09:15) and possibly the AUDUSD SHORT (10:15) if confirmations lagged, while keeping the two winning GBPUSD/NZDUSD shorts. Net effect on this small sample: removing 2–3 losses and keeping 2 wins would shift win rate from ~40% (4W/6L) to ~66% (2W/1L) — but n is tiny, so the +5.7pp backtest gain is not yet visible here with statistical meaning. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, filtering to ≥6 confirmations should reduce false entries from weak momentum setups, likely sustaining a win-rate improvement of 3 Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23446966
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4177 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.3% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4177 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.3% (+5.7pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.3% (+5.7pp, n=830) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-6-confirmations filter would have excluded the two `wkjudas` entries (GBPUSD LONG and USDJPY SHORT) that both closed as losses, and likely the `wkjudas` NZDUSD SHORT still open. Among the `rizzy5m`/`rizzy7m` trades, the filter would have removed the early-loss XAUUSD SHORT (entry 09:15) and possibly the AUDUSD SHORT (10:15) if confirmations lagged, while keeping the two winning GBPUSD/NZDUSD shorts. Net effect on this small sample: removing 2–3 losses and keeping 2 wins would shift win rate from ~40% (4W/6L) to ~66% (2W/1L) — but n is tiny, so the +5.7pp backtest gain is not yet visible here with statistical meaning. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, filtering to ≥6 confirmations should reduce false entries from weak momentum setups, likely sustaining a win-rate improvement of 3 Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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