Spatiotemporal analytics of demographic vulnerability to urban water hardship

Urban water insecurity is an increasingly important challenge for cities worldwide, with significant implications for public health, environmental justice, and sustainable urban development. Limited research has examined the spatiotemporal distribution of water service disruptions and their disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations. We investigate demographic vulnerability to recurring Boil Water Notices (BWNs) in Jackson, Mississippi, USA, using historical BWN records from 2016 to 2024. A geospatial workflow integrating GIS, Python, OpenStreetMap (OSM), census data, and building-footprint-based dasymetric mapping was developed to transform street-address-based BWN records into census block-level datasets. We employed Getis–Ord Gi* hot spot analysis and hot spot comparison analysis to evaluate the spatial coincidence between recurring BWN hot spots and demographic characteristics. The results reveal persistent spatial inequalities in BWN exposure among older adults, populations with lower educational attainment, Black residents, individuals living below the poverty line, and children under five years of age. Older adults exhibited the strongest and most persistent spatial association with BWN hot spots, followed by populations with lower educational attainment, Black residents, and low-income populations. In contrast, higher-income and more highly educated populations generally experienced lower and less persistent exposure. BWN exposure is not randomly distributed across the city but instead overlaps with existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, suggesting growing disparities in urban water hardship over time. By utilizing historical BWN records as indicators of water service disruptions, this study advances the understanding of urban water vulnerability and service delivery inequality while providing a transferable framework for identifying communities disproportionately affected by urban water insecurity and informing more equitable and resilient water governance strategies.