TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN JEMA’A LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA

This study examines long-term trends and variability in rainfall and temperature in Jema’a Local Government Area of Kaduna State, Nigeria, over 56 years (1970–2025). The Mann-Kendall trend test and Theil-Sen slope estimator were used to analyse annual rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency to determine the direction, magnitude, and significance of climatic changes. The findings indicated a slight increase in annual rainfall (Z = 1.28; Sen’s slope = +5.63 mm/year). Rainfall varies significantly from year to year, with periods of above- and below-average precipitation interspersed with a discernible increase in 2023. Over the study period, maximum temperatures show a slight, statistically insignificant downward trend (Z = -0.67; Sen’s slope = -0.018 °C/year), indicating that daytime temperatures have remained largely constant. In contrast, minimum temperatures show a statistically significant declining trend (Z = −2.87; Sen’s slope = −0.051 °C/year), suggesting that nighttime temperatures are steadily declining. Overall, the findings suggest that climatic variability has a stronger influence on local climate patterns in Jema’a LGA than long-term trends. These changes have important implications for agriculture, water resource management, and environmental sustainability in the area. Continuous climate monitoring and targeted adaptation strategies are therefore essential to support farming communities and enhance resilience to climate variability.