Transformer Redundancy and Export Availability in Saudi Utility Scale Solar Power Plants: An Analytical Scenario Study of Outage States and Collector Bus Reconfiguration

Recovering generation from a disconnected collector section requires a healthy export path and a feasible electrical transfer route. This paper develops an analytical scenario model to examine that condition in utility scale photovoltaic plants, with implications for electrical design in Saudi Arabia. Exact outage-state probabilities are combined with a normalized production profile, a shared-outage state and a parameter for completed collector-bus reconfiguration. Four arrangements serve a 100 MW peak source: one 100 MW path, two 60 MW paths, three 40 MW paths and two 100 MW paths. At independent path unavailability of 1% and shared unavailability of 0.1%, calculated energy losses with full reconfiguration are 1.0990%, 0.5919%, 0.3638% and 0.1100%, respectively. Three 40 MW paths preserve more energy than two 60 MW paths, despite a lower probability of retaining full peak capacity. Without reconfiguration, all arrangements lose 1.0990% under the equal-block assumptions. Shared outages account for 90.9% of residual loss in the fully redundant arrangement. Sensitivity analysis identifies conditions that reverse selected comparisons. The contribution is a reproducible screening method that separates installed capacity from recoverable generation. Results are conditional scenarios, not measured Saudi plant performance; the model inputs, equations and verification method are reported in the article.