The impact of digital green finance on agricultural carbon emissions: evidence from 285 Chinese cities

Agriculture, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, plays a vital role in global climate governance through its low‑carbon transition. Digital green finance (DGF) represents a promising tool for cutting agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). Based on panel data for 285 Chinese cities spanning 2011–2023, this study measures DGF via a coupling coordination model and employs a suite of econometric models, including two-way fixed effects, threshold, nonlinear mediating, and moderating effect models, to explore the causal impacts, underlying mechanisms, and heterogeneity of DGF on ACE. The main findings are as follows: (1) DGF exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship with ACE: ACE rises in the initial stage of DGF development and declines after crossing the inflection point of 0.3092. (2) The relationship is characterized by double thresholds at 0.4237 and 0.4800; DGF’s abatement effect gradually turns from statistically insignificant to strongly significant. (3) Agricultural technological innovation, agricultural industrial agglomeration and rural entrepreneurial vitality act as inverted U-shaped nonlinear mediators, whose indirect effects switch from positive to negative as DGF expands. (4) Financial regulatory intensity positively moderates this inverted‑U relationship by shifting the inflection point leftwards, flattening the curve and stabilizing long-term abatement performance. (5) DGF’s impacts on ACE exhibit pronounced multi-dimensional heterogeneity. Theoretically, this study extends research on the environmental effects of DGF to the agricultural sector and identifies its institutional prerequisites. Practically, it provides evidence-based policy implications for integrating digital and green finance into agricultural systems and shares China’s experience to support the global low-carbon transformation of agriculture.