The Emigration Relief Model of Social Tension: Theory, Methodology, and Historical Verification

This trilingual preprint presents the author’s Emigration Relief Model of Social Tension and a program for its empirical verification. The model links historical shocks, governmental decisions, public reaction, and subsequent emigration in a time-indexed sequence expressed heuristically as X(t₁) + Y(t₂) = Z(t₃) − E(t₄). It distinguishes directive, induced, and functional forms of relief and treats the reduction of internal conflict as a testable rather than assumed outcome. The comparative-historical analysis addresses Polish political emigration; forced and induced resettlement of peoples of the Northwestern Caucasus; and the emigration of Mennonites, Doukhobors, Molokans, Jews, Lithuanians, and Finns from the Russian Empire. The deposit contains the complete English, Spanish, and Russian versions in one document.