Solar PV as a buffer against energy security risks during geopolitical shocks: The case of Pakistan during the 2026 US–Iran war

The 2026 US–Iran war disrupted global energy markets, particularly in economies dependent on imported fossil fuels. Pakistan, given its geographic proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and high reliance on imported oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), was expected to face severe stress in its electricity sector. However, a comparison of key energy-sector indicators before and during the conflict, benchmarked against the 2022 Russia–Ukraine energy-price shock, suggests that the impact on Pakistan’s electricity sector was comparatively moderate relative to the 2022 energy-price shock, despite the severity of the external shock. The evidence indicates that the rapid expansion of distributed solar played an important role by reducing reliance on imported fuels and weakening the transmission of international fuel-price volatility into domestic electricity markets. These findings reveal that distributed renewable energy can serve not only as a pathway to decarbonization but also as a strategic instrument for strengthening energy security and resilience to geopolitical shocks in an increasingly volatile global energy landscape.