Spatial and temporal dynamics of cropping systems in the Texas High Plains under climate variability

The Texas High Plains, a vital agricultural region, faces ongoing challenges from water scarcity and climate variability. This study investigated the spatial and temporal trends in major crops and cropping systems, including upland cotton, maize, sorghum, and wheat, from 1968 to 2023. The region was stratified into three subregions (Northern, Central, and Southern) based on geographic location and similarities in cropping patterns and irrigation dependence. Time series and geospatial analyses quantified cropping patterns at the county scale using the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (1968–2023) data and at the pixel scale using the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) data (2008–2023). The Northern subregion experienced a notable post-2000 shift from wheat to cotton, likely influenced by changing climate conditions. Maize hectarage expanded in the Central subregion, supported by irrigation water availability and favorable precipitation patterns. The Southern subregion maintained strong cotton dominance despite a 28.6% reduction in cotton area from 141,640 ha in 1980 to 101,171 ha by 2023, while wheat, maize, and sorghum remained minor components. Across the Northern and Central subregions, cropping systems diversified, with rotations such as cotton–maize, winter wheat–sorghum, and cotton–wheat becoming more prevalent, indicating a shift away from monocultures toward crop rotations that optimize land and water use. These findings highlight the need for site-specific strategies that enhance water use efficiency, build resilience to climate extremes, and promote diversification in cropping systems to sustain agricultural production in semi-arid regions with declining groundwater resources.