Brazilian Potato Production Dynamics and Micro-regional Specialization: An Analysis for the Period 1994–2024

Abstract Despite the long history of potato cultivation in Brazil, its territorial dynamics remain poorly understood. We analyzed municipal and micro-regional production data from 1994 to 2024 using structural-break analysis, location quotients and global and local Moran’s I statistics. Yield gain sustained production despite declining cultivated area, while producing municipalities fell from 991 to 617. Specialization became concentrated in fewer micro-regions and formed persistent spatial clusters, with the strongest cohesion in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Processing-related activities were spatially persistent and more closely associated with production. Therefore, the main contribution of this paper to the literature is, through these patterns, identify regional cores where potato research, seed systems, extension, postharvest infrastructure, and risk management may have greatest leverage. The framework is transferable to other potato-producing countries and can be extended with demand data to assess subnational production-consumption imbalances.