Artificial Intelligence and China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce Development: Threshold Effects and Transmission Mechanisms

The integration of artificial intelligence and search technology is transforming traditional online shopping models, particularly cross-border e-commerce (CBEC), which involves complex customer multi-attribute decision-making with numerous considerations. This study systematically examines the influence of artificial intelligence on the high-quality advancement of CBEC and its underlying mechanisms using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering the period 2013–2023. The study found a significant positive correlation between artificial intelligence and cross-border e-commerce. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests (including removing the interference of pandemic-related data, substituting core explanatory variables, substituting the dependent variable, and lagging explanatory variables by one period). Mechanism analysis indicates that the positive impact of AI on the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce is realized through improvements in logistics capabilities and the unlocking of consumer potential, with mediation effects accounting for 40.27% and 17.02%, respectively. Threshold model results show that the positive impact of AI on the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce exhibits a single threshold effect based on the level of human capital; once human capital exceeds the threshold value, the coefficient further increases. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that AI has the most significant empowering effect on the development of cross-border e-commerce in the eastern regions; however, its impact on the central and western regions is relatively minor. It is worth noting that AI exerts its empowering effect more effectively in regions with high e-commerce procurement activity, whereas the relationship is not significant in regions with low activity.