Challenges and strategies for developing saffron exports in ZabarKhan County: an integrated thematic analysis, Fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy SWARA approach

Purpose This study develops a prioritized, multidimensional framework to identify and assess key barriers to saffron production and export in ZabarKhan County, Iran. It aims to provide an evidence-based basis for feasible policy interventions to support the transition from a production-oriented model toward a value-added, export-oriented saffron value chain. Design/methodology/approach A sequential qualitative–quantitative approach was employed. In the qualitative phase, thirteen semi-structured interviews with farmers and experts were analyzed using Thematic Analysis to identify and organize the main barrier themes. In the quantitative phase, the Fuzzy Delphi method was applied with twenty-five experts to validate and refine the identified barriers. Subsequently, fuzzy stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) was conducted with twenty experts to determine the relative importance and ranking of the validated barriers under uncertainty and linguistic ambiguity. Findings Economic, Income, and Human Resources barriers emerged as the highest-priority category (wi = 0.165), followed by Technical, Production and Processing barriers (wi = 0.157) and Knowledge and Training barriers (wi = 0.147). The findings indicate that these constraints are interconnected. Income instability can limit producers’ capacity to invest in improved technologies. In turn, technological and knowledge limitations may constrain product quality and access to higher-value export markets. Institutional, marketing, environmental, and cultural-attitudinal barriers were also identified, although they received lower relative weights. Overall, the results indicate that saffron export competitiveness is shaped by an interconnected economic–technological–institutional system rather than by isolated constraints. Research limitations/implications One of the main limitations of this study is its focus on ZabarKhan County, which may limit the generalizability of the findings to other saffron-producing regions in the country. Additionally, part of the data relied on the opinions of experts and respondents through the fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy SWARA methods, which may be influenced by subjective judgments and individual experiences. Social implications The development of an export-oriented saffron value chain can contribute to more stable rural livelihoods, employment opportunities, and greater participation of local producers in higher-value agricultural activities. Strengthening farmer knowledge, institutional coordination, quality assurance, and market access may also support more equitable distribution of value across the saffron value chain. By reducing income instability and improving access to training and market-oriented capabilities, the proposed approach can contribute to the sustainable development of saffron-producing communities in ZabarKhan County and similar rural regions. Originality/value This study contributes to the saffron and agribusiness literature by integrating Thematic Analysis, Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy SWARA to identify, validate, and prioritize export barriers within a regional saffron value chain. Rather than examining individual constraints separately, the study provides an integrated assessment of the economic, technological, knowledge, institutional, environmental, and market conditions that shape export-oriented development. The findings support a sequenced policy approach emphasizing economic risk reduction, targeted technological and knowledge upgrading, stronger institutional coordination and value-chain governance, and gradual development of traceability and branding mechanisms.