When Can Markets Crash Without News?

In a resilient N-asset market with fixed fundamentals and paired-dollar execution, we prove that response elasticity e(S)=Sg'(S)/g(S) >= 2 excludes every positive systemic drawdown, whereas e(S) >= 1 excludes a simultaneous decline of all assets. The proof uses a response-adapted generalized price coordinate Phi(S) = integral from F to S of u/g(u) du, uniquely normalized so that an executed-dollar transfer produces an equal coordinate displacement. This reveals an additive trading conservation law and a recovery-driven stability barrier. Within the common family g_p(S)=eta(S/F)^p, the regimes p=2,1,0 respectively yield exclusion, inventory-bounded partial-coverage losses, and arbitrarily severe partial-coverage log losses under uniform finite turnover and inventory when pulses are permitted. We establish necessary dollar-turnover and share-inventory bounds. For constant per-share impact and bounded gross share rates, the maximal small-rate systemic loss is of quadratic order, with an attaining-order continuous construction. Rolling daily price limits constrain individual sessions but need not exclude multiday losses: a computer-assisted ten-asset path has nine assets reach their lower closing limits on two successive sessions, closes every executed-dollar ledger, and attains systemic log loss above 0.020. In this example the required gross-rate cap satisfies 0.044 < v_bar_* < 0.285. This preprint includes the English manuscript and separate supplementary material in the SIFIN review format. Reproducibility software, computational certificates and partial Lean formalization: https://github.com/Siyuan-chat/market-crash-reachability . This record does not claim journal publication or peer-review acceptance.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23427879
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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preprint

When Can Markets Crash Without News?

Siyuan Ye
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

When Can Markets Crash Without News?

Siyuan Ye
preprint en

Abstract

In a resilient N-asset market with fixed fundamentals and paired-dollar execution, we prove that response elasticity e(S)=Sg'(S)/g(S) >= 2 excludes every positive systemic drawdown, whereas e(S) >= 1 excludes a simultaneous decline of all assets. The proof uses a response-adapted generalized price coordinate Phi(S) = integral from F to S of u/g(u) du, uniquely normalized so that an executed-dollar transfer produces an equal coordinate displacement. This reveals an additive trading conservation law and a recovery-driven stability barrier. Within the common family g_p(S)=eta(S/F)^p, the regimes p=2,1,0 respectively yield exclusion, inventory-bounded partial-coverage losses, and arbitrarily severe partial-coverage log losses under uniform finite turnover and inventory when pulses are permitted. We establish necessary dollar-turnover and share-inventory bounds. For constant per-share impact and bounded gross share rates, the maximal small-rate systemic loss is of quadratic order, with an attaining-order continuous construction. Rolling daily price limits constrain individual sessions but need not exclude multiday losses: a computer-assisted ten-asset path has nine assets reach their lower closing limits on two successive sessions, closes every executed-dollar ledger, and attains systemic log loss above 0.020. In this example the required gross-rate cap satisfies 0.044 < v_bar_* < 0.285. This preprint includes the English manuscript and separate supplementary material in the SIFIN review format. Reproducibility software, computational certificates and partial Lean formalization: https://github.com/Siyuan-chat/market-crash-reachability . This record does not claim journal publication or peer-review acceptance.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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