Traceable Burned-Area Evidence for Territorial Governance: Scenario-Based multi-pyDEMATEL and ABBI Mapping in the Vesuvian Interface

MODIS/EFFIS burned-area archives provide reproducible information on wildfire occurrence, perimeter geometry, administrative attribution, mapped area, date fields, and land-cover composition. However, their translation into proportionate municipal documentation, monitoring, coordination, and territorial-management evidence remains only partially formalized, especially in volcanic–urban interfaces where relatively compact burned-area records may still generate non-negligible administrative pressure. This study develops a scenario-based multi-pyDEMATEL workflow for assessing Administrative Burned-Area Burden in the Vesuvian interface, southern Italy. Rather than modelling burn severity, hydrogeomorphic susceptibility, legal responsibility, or field-validated damage, the analysis reframes MODIS/EFFIS records as traceable administrative evidence for multi-criteria decision-chain screening. Four bounded objectives are addressed: (i) to construct a GIS-ready burned-area support for the Vesuvian interface while retaining Napoli and Campania layers as contextual references; (ii) to derive ten non-hydrogeomorphic Administrative Burned-Area descriptors describing burned-area share, recurrence, large-event dominance, administrative concentration, protected-area exposure, agricultural exposure, urban/interface exposure, forest–shrubland signature, event-duration burden, and reporting/update lag; (iii) to structure these descriptors through a scenario-based multi-pyDEMATEL ensemble comprising 121 scenario-specific DEMATEL computations, and to audit the resulting fingerprints through PCA; and (iv) to translate the resulting Administrative Burned-Area Burden Index into municipal ABBI classes suitable for QGIS visualization, documentation prioritization, and verification-oriented monitoring. The results indicate a marked concentration of Vesuvian burned-area burden across a limited number of event and municipal supports, while the DEMATEL/PCA outputs help distinguish stable and divergent descriptor configurations within the administrative evidence system. The resulting ABBI layer is therefore interpreted as a governance-sensitive, GIS-ready decision-support product, not as a hazard map, burn-severity product, legal-liability surface, municipal-responsibility boundary, or DEM-derived susceptibility model. The framework provides a reproducible audit chain for converting open burned-area archives into cautious and interpretable territorial-management evidence.