LAB #4126 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+4.8pp, n=600) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter of ≤2° would have eliminated the two rizzy5m losses (AUDUSD 0.71366 and XAUUSD 4598.79) that occurred on 2026-08-27, both of which likely had wider phase separation at entry. It would also have removed the rizzy5m GBPUSD SHORT still open (1.34898) if its phase distance exceeded 2°, but the two rizzy5m wins (NZDUSD 0.58252 and GBPUSD 1.36238) would likely survive if they met the tight criterion. Net effect on this small window: removing 2–3 losses while keeping 2 wins would shift the live record from 2W/5L (plus opens) to roughly 2W/2L, a win-rate improvement of ~20pp but on a tiny sample — not statistically meaningful. PnL delta is positive but dominated by variance; the 4.8pp backtest gain is plausible here but unproven at this scale. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23409604
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4126 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4126 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.3% (+4.8pp, n=600) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter of ≤2° would have eliminated the two rizzy5m losses (AUDUSD 0.71366 and XAUUSD 4598.79) that occurred on 2026-08-27, both of which likely had wider phase separation at entry. It would also have removed the rizzy5m GBPUSD SHORT still open (1.34898) if its phase distance exceeded 2°, but the two rizzy5m wins (NZDUSD 0.58252 and GBPUSD 1.36238) would likely survive if they met the tight criterion. Net effect on this small window: removing 2–3 losses while keeping 2 wins would shift the live record from 2W/5L (plus opens) to roughly 2W/2L, a win-rate improvement of ~20pp but on a tiny sample — not statistically meaningful. PnL delta is positive but dominated by variance; the 4.8pp backtest gain is plausible here but unproven at this scale. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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